Play to Win

Starting a new weekly feature here on Yellow Jacket, giving a professional look at some match ups and our view on the winner. In light of all the new legal ways of gambling, bettors no longer have to hide in the shadows and “find a guy” to help them enjoy a casual dalliance on their favorite team or sport. While we here at Yellow Jacket are always, 100% for the Philly teams, remember sports betting requires real money and that can mean going against your hometown team due to a high point spread.

Let’s jump right in to the Thursday night game, Indianapolis at Houston. The Colts won the first meeting by a touchdown in Indianapolis on October 20th. It is always hard to beat a team twice in a season, and this game is no different. You can also tell how Vegas feels by looking at the line. Houston is favored by 3.5 points. In betting terms that means that these are two evenly matched as Vegas gives the home team an automatic 3 point advantage in the spread. In my opinion this couldn’t be further from the truth. Houston is the better team. Also this game will probably predict the division winner with the loser in a battle for the 2nd wild card.

Let’s look at recent games. In the last 3, the Colts are 1-2 with a win over Jacksonville and losses to Pittsburgh and an embarrassing loss to Miami. The Texans are 2-1, having beaten Jacksonville and Oakland while taking a drumming from Baltimore. Baltimore has 8 wins, Miami and Pittsburgh don’t have 8 wins added together.

Looking just at the line, 3.5, it would tend to make you want to bet Indianapolis, being a big divisional game and the first game was only a 7 point difference. When a line makes  you want to bet one side, usually the other side wins. Remember Vegas sets the line and they don’t get to keep the Empire in the sand open if they lose a lot. It is not always a given but a big majority of the time it is. A casual bettor needs to win 6 out of 10 games to make a little money and 7 out of 10 or better to do well. We all think we can do it but having all the tools in our belts helps a lot.

The over/under is 46.5. Anymore this is a low middle number. This usually tends to make the bettor think the over, especially with 2 above average teams. As I said above, if Vegas is steering you one way, think about the other way. Both teams offense average just over 22 and defenses allow on average around 20. Adding those together gives you 42. That’s a 4.5 point difference from the O/U line. Any difference over 3 should make you seriously think under. I, personally, do not like unders, there are times that you are out of the game by halftime. But tonight there are 2 major influencers to go under, so I would say under.

So for tonight’s NFL game, Houston and Under.

It is called gambling and I do not encourage anyone to do so but offer my knowledge in case you enjoy a small wager. This advice is for your enjoyment only. Problem gambling, please call 1-800-gambler.

Good luck everyone and enjoy the game.

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